Let’s walk back in history a few months.

Sudden Surge #1     Rick Perry

Last August, final week of that month, Rick Perry was on his way up and it appeared that nothing could stop him. By mid-September he had reached his peak and by the first week of October he was rapidly in decline. He never recovered and after several painful debate appearances and even more painful performances in Iowa and New Hampshire, Perry threw in the towel, just before another undoubtedly catastrophic appearance in South Carolina.

Sudden Surge #2    Herman Cain

As the Texas Governor was on his way down, another rock star was rising, Herman “9-9-9″ Cain began his 15 minutes of fame. True or not, sexual harassment allegations began to sink him, and quickly. His surge lasted about a month, and the folks, weary of the distraction, began looking for yet another new face, another fresh voice, with snappy messaging, and a pledge to stick it to Obama.

Sudden Surge #3    Newt Gingrich 1

As it became clear Cain wouldn’t measure up… the sheep had lost two shepherds already, one to incompetence, the other to serious and distracting accusations. Enter Newt Gingrich. We had all watched and been impressed by his articulate debate performances. The sheep saw in him a new shepherd, and followed him they did. He appeared unstoppable heading into Iowa. As Newt emerged, so did the negative campaign advertising against him. We were all reminded of his ethics challenges, his wives and mistresses, and his wavering policy positions.  As damaging as the negative ads were, his response to them sent his numbers plummeting, causing him to lose Iowa and New Hampshire embarassingly. His numbers had tanked.

Sudden Surge #4    Rick Santorum 1

In the days leading into Iowa, the sheep were quickly losing their shepherd and they saw another one…. Hard working Rick Santorum. Family guy. True conservative. Likeable. Iowa rewarded his months of effort with a win, or a tie, 0r something like that. Nonetheless, the Rick Santorum 1 surge did not translate into success in New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, or Nevada.

Sudden Surge #5   Newt Gingrich 2

Newt wasn’t finished. Driven by extreme anger over Iowa, he mustered the energy for a resurgence in South Carolina, beating a flat-footed Mitt Romney. By the time Florida came around, we were all reminded – again – why Newt collapsed the first time. He has not recovered since. I predict he won’t. He has now suffered embarrassing losses in Iowa, New Hampshire, Florida, Nevada, Missouri, Minnesota, and Colorado, all of them adding a healthy tarnish to the luster of his lone win in South Carolina. Cats have nine lives. He apparently had two, with one lucky enough to coincide with a state primary.

Sudden Surge #6 Rick Santorum 2

Tired of the back and forth bickering, voters decided they didn’t want either of the guys in a fist fight as their shepherd. Voters and caucus-goers in three states have rewarded Rick Santorum, oddly enough, for NOT being one of the two front-runners. Nobody was predicting a Santorum sweep Tuesday. Nobody. Maybe it’s because there hasn’t been comprehensive polling in those states, in part. But nonetheless, it appears we have yet another sudden surge in the 2012 GOP primary fight. The end of this surge has yet to be witnessed, but if we judge by the first few surges, it doesn’t bode that well for Rick Santorum.

Final Notes:

It’s interesting to hear the pundits talk about how much the people do not want Mitt Romney as their nominee. That may be true. But why is it that we’d trust the fickle loyalty of those who eagerly backed Rick P, then Herman, then Newt, then Rick S, then Newt again, and now likely Rick S again? I have no doubt that the sheep are going to follow their new shepherd. For a while. Until they tire of him in a few minutes, and are eager for a slightly shinier object somewhere else.

The truth, like it or not, is that political supporters this election cycle are antsy. They will adopt a candidate, then promptly ditch them at the first sign of trouble. I’m a Romney supporter, it’s clear. I’ll admit the early sudden surges scared me to death. But I’ve learned the sudden surge by an opposing candidate is nothing to fear, for they collapse shortly after they appear. Such will be the case with Rick Santorum, as he’s put under intense scrutiny in the coming days. By Super Tuesday, his win will be a distant memory for the antsy sheep, looking for yet another shepherd.